Pakistan is walking a tightrope as the Iran war intensifies, with that balance growing more precarious with each passing day.
Islamabad has so far pursued cautious diplomacy, condemning the strikes on Iran, while simultaneously urging de-escalation. But analysts warn it cannot remain insulated from competing pressures.
"Pakistan is putting itself forward as a mediator between the U.S. and Iran, but unconvincingly," Edmund Fitton-Brown, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies told Fox News Digital. "Its own record of staying out of military entanglements is unimpressive."
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At the forefront of the tensions is a new defense agreement with Saudi Arabia, which states that aggression against one will be treated as a threat to both. Widely seen as one of Pakistan's most consequential defense agreements, it commits the country to Riyadh, while risking confrontation with Iran.
Pakistan, the only nuclear-armed Muslim state, already has troops stationed in Saudi Arabia for training and defense support and has said there is "no question" of coming to the kingdom's aid.
"Remember, Pakistan is geographically part of both South Asia and Central Asia, as well as the wider Gulf/MENA region too. Pakistan has always pursued peace, dialogue and order because we know what war does to our region," Mosharraf Zaidi, spokesperson for foreign media to the Pakistani prime minister, told Fox News Digital.
Within days of the war's outbreak, the country's army chief, General Asim Munir, made an "emergency" visit to Saudi Arabia, where top officials discussed joint responses to Iranian strikes. It was the first true test of the pact.
Relations are strong between the two nations, and Riyadh remains a key economic lifeline for Islamabad. Saudi Arabia has already been making arrangements to support energy supplies, as war-driven fuel disruptions hit import-dependent Pakistan.
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Yet Pakistan's relationship with Iran is equally critical.
The two share a 565-mile border along with deep trade ties and significant religious connections.
Pakistan is home to the world's second-largest Shiite community after Iran. Pro-Iran regime protests in the wake of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's assassination turned deadly, forcing military intervention and curfews.
Maintaining ties with Tehran is crucial for containing domestic tensions and staving off an insurgency from the minority Baloch community there.
Iran is also an important economic partner to Pakistan, which has been facing a severe economic crisis. The two conduct significant trade, with a new goal of $10 billion by 2028.
Pakistan's foreign minister has held "constant conversations" with his Iranian counterpart throughout the conflict. And last week, a Pakistani oil tanker transited the essentially blockaded Strait of Hormuz. Analysts noted it was the first non-Iranian cargo ship to do so since tensions escalated, suggesting that safe passage may have been negotiated. Officials add that more Pakistan-bound oil tankers are likely to cross the strait in the coming days.
Most of Pakistan's crude and LNG imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz. But as the war grinds on, analysts warn Pakistan's room for neutrality is shrinking.
Pakistan recently went against Iran, backing a Gulf-led resolution at the United Nations condemning regional aggression. Russia and China abstained.
Meanwhile, Iran's foreign minister just called for regional coordination in separate calls with Pakistan, Turkey and Egypt.
At the same time, Islamabad must also navigate relations with Washington, yet another key partner.
Under President Donald Trump's second term, Pakistan has sought closer relations with the U.S., even floating his name for the Nobel Peace Prize.
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Questions are also emerging in Washington. During a White House briefing, Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said the administration was coordinating with the Pentagon to assess whether Pakistan is supporting Iran, while describing India as a "good actor."
India's positioning has added further pressure, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi's recent visit to Israel.
"There is no contradiction in being absolutely committed to peace, dialogue and order. The strong relationships Pakistan has with the United States, with Saudi Arabia, with Iran and with China are a testament to Pakistan's commitment," the Pakistani prime minister's spokesperson, Zaidi said.
So far, Pakistan has effectively positioned itself at the forefront of mediation efforts to end the ongoing conflict, leveraging its ties with all three powerhouses.
Reports indicate that high-level talks between the U.S. and Iran are set for Islamabad as early as this weekend.
"Pakistan wants to matter to the U.S. and to be a better partner than India. Because the Afghan Taliban have alienated Islamabad since 2021, there are few remaining sore points between the U.S. and Pakistan, with the latter able to present as an ally against terrorism," Fitton-Brown said. "And most regional parties want to see the crisis end sooner rather than later. But nobody wants to see the Islamic Republic strengthened in Iran."
The spiraling war comes at a critical time for Pakistan's already stretched military. Tensions with India remain elevated, while border clashes, airstrikes, drone attacks and rising civilian casualties have become the norm with once friendly neighbor Afghanistan.
The nations nosedived into an "all-out war," just days before the Iran conflict broke out, and the violence shows no signs of easing after fresh Pakistani strikes recently hit the Afghan capital city of Kabul.
"This geography and the region's history is why Pakistan steadfastly rejects India's efforts at regional hegemony, it is why Pakistan is pursuing a termination of the Afghan Taliban regime's support for terrorist groups," Zaidi said. "We seek a complete cessation of terrorism emanating from territory currently controlled by the Afghan Taliban."
With Pakistan already managing tensions on both its eastern border with India and its western frontier with Afghanistan, a destabilized Iran could push that strain further.
"If Islamabad is destabilized, it will be extremely bad news regionally and globally," Edmund Fitton-Brown told Fox. "The idea of a nuclear power under jihadi rule doesn't bear thinking about."
